Homes for Scotland Conference - some things to think about

In her keynote speech to the Homes for Scotland Conference Kate Forbes stated that there are approximately 693,000 people in housing need across Scotland. This comes from the Rettie/Diffley housing needs report.

Mark Diffley of the Diffley Partnership updated the Conference on trends that have been picked up across the year; the census is your friend according to Mark.

Themes that are emerging:

• the Scottish population is getting older and more urban.
• there has been a move of people from west to east.
• there has been a change in tenure spread, with a 10% fall in homes occupied by mortgage holders and a 20% rise of households in the private rented sector.

Mark's view was that to address the housing crisis we will need a cultural shift to all tenure housing not just a focus on affordable housing.

Leading a conversation on how we put housing at the heart of economic strategy, Barry White, Chair of the National Strategy for Economic Transfer Delivery Board, agreed that Scotland needs a cultural shift to all tenure housing to improve economic performance and gave the example of the space sector as a key area for growth. Using Glasgow as an example of a world leading hub for satellite manufacturing, he stressed Scotland's competitive advantage because of links to Universities, lifestyle choices and more affordable housing across all tenure housing. .

In the final discussion session of the Conference, Lucy Greenwood of Savills provided some statistics on house sales over the previous year. Interestingly, Scotland has grown where other areas within the UK have dropped. Lucy advised that there had been a 1.4% growth in sales over the last year, however new build completions have fallen by 17% over the year 3 bed houses and 2 bed flats remain the best sellers.

Looking forward, Lucy forecast that over the period 2024 – 2028, house prices would grow by 21.6%, assuming that economic conditions remain as predicted and suggested we may see a fall in the base rate from its current 5% to around 2%. Hopefully some good news at last for the sector!