The Scottish Government has just published the latest housing statistics in the year to end of December 2024 which reveal a continuing decline in new build homes starts and completions. However, the most up to date planning application figures show a decrease in the time taken to determine major housing applications.
Totalling 19,797, completions of all-sector new build homes are down 7% compared to the previous 12 months and all-sector new build starts are down 9% at 15,050. Excluding COVID affected 2020, overall completions are at the lowest level since 2017 and total new starts are at their lowest since 2013.
Private sector
15,066 private new build homes were completed in the year to end December 2024, a drop of 119 homes from the previous year and the lowest level of completions since 2017 (excluding 2020). Site starts fell 12% to 11,617; the lowest levels since 2013.
Social sector
While there was a small increase in social sector starts at 3433 in the year to end December 2024 against 3366 in the previous calendar year, completions of new build homes in the social sector fell significantly from 6053 in 2023 to 4731 (22%) in the year end to 2024. This is the lowest level since the year to the end of December 2017.
Breaking the social sector down further, local authority housing starts increased to 1431 (an increase of 179 homes) but completions dropped to 1715 (-247). Housing associations started 2208 homes (up by only 16 homes from the previous year) but completions fell by 1,075 (26%) to 3016.
In terms of affordable homes which are part of the Scottish Government's Affordable Housing Supply Programme, the number of completions were down by 18% (a drop of 1,736 homes) compared to the year end December 2023. Approvals and site starts were both up by 4% (249 and 254 homes respectively).
With a Scottish Government affordable housing delivery target of 110,000 homes by 2032, less than a quarter of that target (26,039 affordable homes) has been completed as at end of December 2024, with 77% of those homes for social rent.
Determination of major housing applications
One area where a fall in numbers is good news is the time taken by planning authorities to determine major housing applications. The planning application statistics for April 2024 to September 2024 show that the average period for determining a major housing application reduced from 53.4 weeks in Q4 of 2023 to 42.2 weeks in Q1 of 2024 and fell further to 33.2 in Q2. The number of applications determined in each quarter has doubled from the end of 2023 which is also encouraging.
Conclusion
The purpose of gathering data is to provide a basis for action. The Scottish Government published its Planning and the Housing Emergency Delivery Plan in November 2024, setting out the actions it intended to take over the following 6 months to address the housing emergency. One of the objectives of the Plan is actively enabling and facilitating development to deliver more homes, including unblocking residential planning applications which are stuck in the system. This should hopefully lead to a continuing reduction in the time taken to determine major housing applications, but planning permission is, of course, only one of the statutory consents required for a site start. Publication of the next quarterly statistics for site starts and completions will reveal whether more homes are in fact being delivered.
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