Scottish housing market – year to end September 2024

While temperatures remain low in Scotland, so too does the supply of new build and affordable homes. The Scottish Government recently published the Housing Statistics for the year to end September 2024 showing a decrease in the progress of their affordable housing supply programme and the provision of private and social sector new build homes.

Overall

During the year to end September 2024, 19,828 new build homes were completed across all sectors, representing a 10% decrease on the previous year. This is the lowest figure across new open market new builds since 2018 (excluding the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020), and since 2017 in the social sector.

14,768 new builds were started to the year ending September 2024, a 12% drop on 2023. Site starts in the social sector, although similar to 2023, were at the lowest level in the last 20 years.

East Lothian and Midlothian saw the highest number of new build completions, boasting a rate of 75 completions per 10,000 of the population.

Private sector

While private new builds comprised over three quarters (15,056 homes) of all completed new build homes in the year end to September 2024, the rate of completions has dropped by 4% since 2023. The rate of private new build starts was the lowest since year to end September 2013. Regionally the hot spots were East Lothian and West Lothian at a rate of 54 homes per 10,000 of population. In 11 local authorities, fewer than 18 homes per 10,000 of population were completed.

Social sector

4,772 social sector new builds, just less than a quarter, were completed in Scotland as a whole in the period to Q4 2024, down 26% on the previous year. In more positive news, social sector starts remained the same as the previous year with spades put in the ground for 3,701 starts. Local authority housing starts increased by 34% with a 14 % reduction in housing association starts. Four local authorities saw no social sector homes built in the period. Dumfries and Galloway, Scottish Borders and West Lothian saw the highest housing association new build rates at 14 per 10,000 of population.

Affordable housing covers homes for social rent, affordable rent and affordable ownership, including purchase of off the shelf properties and redevelopments, supported through the Government's Affordable Housing Supply Programme. 8,413 affordable homes were delivered across Scotland in the year end to September 2024, which included the social sector completions referred to above. This figure is the lowest since 2017 (excluding COVID-19) and a 22% decrease since 2023.