What do the latest statistics on Section 36 Wind Farm Decisions tell us?

The latest statistics on Section 36 wind farm decisions (2023-2024) tell us about changes to the wind farm consenting landscape since the introduction of NPF4.

Background

Our previous blog reviewed statistics for 2017-2022. We have updated those statistics to include decisions issued in 2023-2024.

In September 2023, the Scottish Government introduced its Onshore Wind Sector Deal, outlining commitments from both the government and the onshore wind industry to deliver on their target of 20GW of onshore wind in Scotland by 2030.

As part of this Deal, the Scottish Government aim to determine applications under section 36 of the Electricity Act (i.e. for wind farms 50MW or greater) within 12 months if there is no public inquiry or 24 months if there is an inquiry.

Key Findings

Number of decisions

• Since 2017, there have been 69 decisions issued by the Scottish Ministers, an average of just over 8 decisions a year.
• However, since NPF4 was adopted (February 2023) there have been 23 decisions, and 16 of those were made in 2023. This is not as unsurprising as it may first seem as we saw a number of decisions delayed for NPF4 coming into effect (and a number of reports from DPEA having to be re-issued once NPF4 was adopted).
• Only 2 of those post-NPF4 decisions, however, were for applications submitted after NPF4.

Success rates:

• Obviously, the success of an application largely depends on suitability of the sites/projects being brought forward and so there is only so much to be gleaned from the number of applications approved in each year, however, here are some highlights from our analysis.
• Prior to the introduction of NPF4, overall consent was granted in 76% of applications which is demonstrative of the positive steps Scotland has made in advancing onshore renewable energy. However, since NPF4 was introduced, the success rate has fallen slightly to 72%.
• By contrast, the average success rate where a public local inquiry (PLI) was held ("PLI decisions") has increased from 61% pre-NPF4 to 64% post-NPF4.
• Before NPF4 was implemented, all applications where a PLI was not held were granted consent, reflecting that PLIs are held when there are more contentious issues. However, post-NPF4, the success rate for non-PLI decisions has decreased to 88% (due to the application for Lethen Wind Farm, where a PLI was not held, being refused in 2024).
• In our previous post, we reported that all decisions in 2020 were granted consent, whereas the success rate was only 44% the prior year (2019). Although success rates continue to vary slightly between years, they have been relatively consistent in recent years with rates falling between 78% and 86% each year between 2021 and 2024.

Timeframes:

• The average time for determination in 2023 and 2024 was two years four months. For the two applications submitted after the introduction of NPF4, the average time for determination was one year seven months (and both had PLIs) – a 32% reduction.
• The previously reported longest (10 years and 10 months) and shortest (one year) periods for a decision were not beaten by any of the 2023 or 2024 decisions, in which the longest was four years and eight months and the shortest was one year and one month.
• As mentioned above, the timeframe of some of the 2023 decisions will have been extended due to the Scottish Ministers delaying a decision for NPF4 coming in and with Reporters having to produce second reports to Scottish Ministers once NPF4 came into effect.
• The average time for a decision involving a PLI differed between 2023 and 2024 - falling from three years one month in 2023 to one year seven months in 2024 (the previous average (2017-2022) was three years eight months).
• The mean time for a decision without a PLI in 2023 and 2024 was two years four months, which represents a 56% increase compared to 2022 when it averaged one year and six months and above the 2017-2022 average of one year 11 months.

PLIs:

• A PLI is automatically triggered when the planning authority objects to the development. However, reporters give parties the option to use written submissions and hearings instead of and/or in addition to inquiry sessions which can affect the timeframes.
• Overall, PLIs are held in approximately two-thirds of applications which is demonstrative of the attitude of local authorities to large onshore wind developments within their local area.
• Use of PLIs continues to vary from year to year but the statistics show that use has declined in recent years. Between 2017 and 2022, PLIs were held in around 64% of applications. This figure decreased to 57% between 2023 and 2024.
• The 2023-2024 average time for the Reporter to prepare the PLI report was seven months after the final PLI date. The longest period was 14 months (2023) while the shortest was four months (2024). This is compared to an average of eight months for 2017-2022 decisions.
• Once the report is finalised, it can still take some time for the decision to be issued, with an average of seven months from report to decision in 2023 and 2024. In one instance, it took 14 months for the Scottish Ministers to issue their decision.

Comment

These statistics show the challenges in reaching the targets contained in the Onshore Wind Sector Deal, especially as transmission and battery storage applications compete for the Energy Consents Unit’s (increased) resource.

However, it must be remembered that the change of direction introduced by NPF4, including the introduction of biodiversity enhancement, will have lengthened timescales for deciding applications, particularly those decided in 2023.

Also, given the relatively small number of decisions, outliers can have a disproportionate effect on the overall statistics.

Methodology

Data for this analysis was taken from the DPEA and ECU websites for decisions in the last eight years (2017-2024). Data from extensions or variations to existing consented wind farms are not included in the analysis (i.e. only new wind farm applications were considered).