How resilience may define Scotland’s food and drink future

Entering 2026, Scotland’s food and drink industry is not alone in feeling that it has had a particularly tough time in recent years, having lived through a period of economic and political turbulence, bumpy recoveries and rising costs in labour, supplies and energy.

The industry, however, has met challenges with a determined resilience. These themes shone through at the 13th Brodies’ Food and Drink Conference, where the full spectrum of food and drink businesses – from producers to processors to retailers – came together to network and share their experiences on the current landscape.

The industry’s continued success was reflected in record-breaking figures revealed by Scotland Food & Drink last November. As Scotland Food & Drink’s Programme Director Amanda Brown told the conference, the turnover of the more than 17,000 food and drink businesses across the country now stands at an estimated £19 billion. However, this may be grounds for only cautious celebration in light of ongoing questions and challenges regarding continuing inflation in the price of both food and key inputs, net zero, regulation, artificial intelligence and shifting consumer habits. The conference also heard a most insightful presentation on the economic outlook from Royal Bank of Scotland economist Philip Bartlett, who highlighted forecasts for continued growth in the UK economy alongside a number of ongoing challenges.

Opportunities are nevertheless there. What will count is how businesses produce, sell, build and protect their brands to meet future demands. So while challenges persist, the sector is well-equipped to embrace those opportunities available.

Changing consumer demands

Shifting consumer habits are emerging as a key factor in the future of Scotland’s food and drink industry, with health an increasing focus. Suzie Millar, co-founder of the Natural Larder Collective and the Scottish Bee Company, noted that this creates a significant opportunity for businesses producing naturally-sourced products, such as the Scottish Bee Company’s honey-based B-Fuel natural energy gels.

Another significant development is the rapidly-increasing popularity of GLP-1 weight management drugs (commonly known by brand names such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro). According to a new study by University College London (UCL), an estimated 1.6 million adults in Great Britain used GLP-1s to help them lose weight between early 2024 and early 2025. This has the potential to change consumer buying habits, with users moving more towards proteins and vegetables and away from high-fat foods, sugar and alcohol.

But the extent of this impact is debatable – and there could be a huge opportunity for Scotland’s food and drink industry according to Steven Hill, the chief finance officer at Finsbury Food Group, who agreed with his fellow panellists that ‘targeting the moment’ is playing an increasing role in businesses’ strategies, in both their product offerings and their marketing. ‘GLP-1 friendly’ products and packaging are already a firm feature of the US food and drink market, which is seen as a couple of years ahead in its GLP-1 journey. At the beginning of January, Marks & Spencer launched a ‘nutrient dense’ range, with its head of food innovation, Annette Peters, indicating it was good for those ‘reducing their food intake’, including those using weight loss jabs. Similarly, Morrisons recently announced a partnership with Applied Nutrition to launch a range of ‘GLP-1 friendly’ ready meals.

The role of AI

How consumers find Scotland’s produce is another area that deserves attention. The media through which people search for and buy products are rapidly evolving, with social media and large language models (LLMs) playing an ever-important role. As pointed out by Stuart Blues, finance director at Chanrossa Group, intent is increasingly translating straight into purchase, with the ‘middleman’ method of Google pointing the user to a range of websites being replaced by AI-search and in-app stores, most notably on Instagram and TikTok. The battleground for consumer attention is continuously evolving, with food and drink brands now needing to consider algorithms, social search and creator‑driven marketing.

Protecting the future

Other key considerations at the centre of the sector’s long-term planning are regulation, recruitment, brands and retailer relationships.

From Brexit to the emergence of cell-cultivated proteins, food regulation has been operating in a fast-moving environment. Geoff Ogle, chief executive of Food Standards Scotland, told the conference to plan for a coming modernisation of Scotland’s regulatory regime, including a shift towards funding the regulator regime more directly through operator levies rather than from under-pressure public sector budgets. The heart of this updated approach to regulation, he said, should be collaboration between the regulator and Scotland’s food and drink sector – and an understanding that food safety regulation “is not just a health issue but an economic one as well”. Geoff believes it is crucial, however, that sustainability and food security are not disassociated from food safety – which is too often is seen as a “given” – and that food safety and nutritional health must not be compromised in pursuit of other goals (however worthy).

Recruitment – and retention – is also central to any conversation around business success. The UK national living wage has increased by 77% in the last 10 years alone, far outpacing inflation, meaning costs have soared for labour-intensive businesses. Speakers at this year’s Food and Drink Conference agreed that culture, including flexible working policies, is key to attracting and retaining the right talent.

John Noble, in his final public appearance as director of the British Brands Group before a well-earned retirement, told the conference about the importance of brands in shaping consumer behaviour, their value to the businesses who own them and the challenges posed to successful brands by ‘copycat’ products. John also highlighted the importance of the Groceries Code for businesses that supply directly to the large food and drink retailers that are within the code’s scope.

In particular, he emphasised the need for suppliers to understand not only the code’s specific terms but also how they can be interpreted to give the supplier the broadest level of protection. With the retailers keen to show the Groceries Code Adjudicator that they comply, and the median retailer compliance score sitting comfortably above 90%, the code is a valuable tool to help suppliers manage these demanding – and otherwise often one-sided – relationships.

Looking ahead

Global economic and political developments will continue to have an impact on the sector, with supply chain disruption, fluctuating energy prices and climate change all relevant to the long-term planning of Scotland’s food and drink producers.

Innovation and diversification will therefore play a defining role. As consumer expectations and trading conditions evolve, we will see an unprecedented pace of change in the products that businesses produce and the ways in which these are marketed.

The industry’s ability to be flexible and react to the times has allowed it to thrive. So for the future, anticipating trends will be key – and it is the willingness not just to accept but to embrace change that will keep food and drink firmly at the forefront of Scotland’s economy.

Charles Livingstone, partner at Brodies, said: "The resilience of Scotland’s food and drink industry characterised the 13th Brodies Food and Drink Conference, which brought together a fantastic range of producers, retailers and thought leaders.

"The insights of our speakers – and the discussions they prompted – underline the industry’s determination to tackle the challenges and embrace the opportunities that will shape its future.

"A clear message from the day is that responsiveness has become essential – whether in reacting to evolving consumer behaviours, adjusting to new methods of marketing products or protecting your brand and customer relationships. What is most encouraging, however, is the industry’s ability to view these changes from a perspective of possibility.

"Scotland’s food and drink businesses remain well‑positioned to lead with innovation and intent, and we look forward to hearing more about their successes at next year’s conference."

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